Bearish US consumer ruminations
Top line US consumer data remains resilient. However, elevated interest rates and inflationary pressures are starting to take their toll.
Market spotlights
Bearish US consumer ruminations
Top line US consumer data remains resilient. However, elevated interest rates and inflationary pressures are starting to take their toll.
Additionally, if/when US equity prices drawdown, the move would immensely impact consumer behavior as the wealth effect goes into reverse impacting the top of the “K” shaped US economy.
The last chip to fall here would be an AI driven spike in unemployment, while there continues to be a consistent stream of corporate restructuring announcements, layoffs have yet to hit jobs numbers.
We observe mixed hedge fund positioning in the consumer sector as most have stayed away from outright bearish bets due to resiliency, but this leaves decent convexity if negative developments for the consumer continue to unfold.
This commentary is for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Opinions expressed are those of Masterpiece Advisors, LLC as of the date of this commentary and are subject to change.
Weekly market notes every Friday from Aaron Sweeney after the closing bell.