Global Markets & Economic Data
Various technical, sentiment and fundamental headwinds are causing softness in risk assets. Thursday's US session featured post NVDA earnings rally reversal and the continued plummet in crypto prices.
- US: Delayed September US Non-Farm Payrolls data was well ahead of expectations, reducing the odds of a December Fed rate cut, but the Unemployment Rate hit a 4-year high at 4.4%. The Philly Fed manufacturing index improved but remains in contraction territory while the KC Fed manufacturing index was in expansion territory. October Existing Home Sales rose for a second straight month, but activity remains subdued.
- Switzerland/Europe/UK: Swiss Q3 GDP contracted -0.5% q/q. Eurozone Q3 GDP growth is estimated to be 0.2% q/q. UK Retail Sales and consumer sentiment data trended downwards.
- Japan/China: Japan approved a JPY 21.3T stimulus package, the largest since the pandemic that attempts to relieve inflationary pressures that are running above target at 3%. Japan's trade deficit narrowed, fueled by a surge in US auto exports. Chinese prices charged (for both services and manufacturing) jumped to a 3-year high.
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- The lack of visibility on Fed policy, exacerbated by a lack of official data in the wake of the government shutdown, is curtailing the opportunity set for Macro US FX/Rates trading. Additionally, risk sentiment generally has lacked much direction, because of the cloudy rate outlook.
- The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025 sharply declined over recent weeks, falling from nearly 100% a month ago to approximately 30-40% as of yesterday, but now this morning Fed officials are taking on a more dovish tone, bringing the expectations back to ~75% for a cut.
- The drop in expectations stems from mixed jobs data, revived inflation concerns, and the impact of government data blackouts.
Market Spotlight: Is it different this time?
- AI adoption trends are impressive with firms of all sizes integrating AI into their day-to-day operations.
- Tech specialists note a few key differences about the current AI revolution versus the dot.com bubble of the late 1990s.
- Firstly, tech valuations do not look as stretched today as they were in the peak dot.com bubble years.
- Secondly, as underscored in Nvidia's earnings call, AI capacity is scarce across the entire vertical chain from chips to GPUs to data center hardware, whereas during the dot.com bubble telecom capacity far outstripped demand with much of the telecom infrastructure buildout left unused.
Valuations are not stretched just yet (on a relative basis vs dot.com)
AI tech adoption has gone mainstream!
Market Spotlight: The macro eats the micro in commodities YTD
- Active, fundamentally driven commodity specialist futures traders are having a frustrating year. Headline driven market conditions featuring the "macro eating the micro" are causing headaches.
- The challenges started in February with the plummet in European gas prices on hopes of a Ukrainian peace deal. EU gas markets remain in a downtrend and volatility is suppressed resulting in a curtailed opportunity set for European gas traders to recoup Q1 losses.
- Other prominent macro moments for commodity traders were the wholesale liquidation of commodities during liquidation day and the historic daily price movements in copper markets during July when Trump completely backtracked on copper tariff initiatives communicated just week's earlier.
- While it is frustrating to hold exposure to a segment of the market that is challenged, the commodity specialists themselves accept the low Sharpe cyclicality of the commodity opportunity-set to be a permenant characteristic of their investment universe.
- As many micro supply and demand situations in agriculture, livestock, energy and metals markets remain unresolved, commodity specialist exposure remains an attractive source of absolute unocorrelated returns in the years ahead.
Not a great year for most commodity traders
February was a mess in EU gas amid failed Ukrainian peace talks
Market Spotlight: Affordability and Job Loss Concerns
- It seems like every day we receive news of yet another major corporation reducing its workforce. Just yesterday, Verizon announced a reduction of 13,000 jobs.
- The latest delayed labor market data for September underscores this trend. � Affordability issues are becoming increasingly prominent, capturing the political attention of both Democrats and Republicans. We
are closely monitoring this situation to understand how rising prices and a weakening job market will influence economic and political outcomes, especially as New York City prepares for a new administration focused intensely on affordability.
Job loss will not make affordability any easier
The new NYC mayor is mandated to bring down living costs
Masterpiece Hedge Fund Alpha Monitor Snapshot
Analysis Period: November 3, 2025 - November 20, 2025
Analysis Period: November 3, 2025 - November 20, 2025
Return Net AKessyeStStVanaatpilssuhteiocts
Key StatSisntaipcsshot Analysis Period: November 3, 2025 - November 20, 2025
-0.37% MTD Consolidated 5 DAY RETURN 11/14/25 - 11/20/25
-0.24%NAME: ACCOUNT: CUMULATIVE RETURN 11/03/25 - 11/20/25
-0.41%MTD Consolidated 5 DAY RETURN 11/14/25 - 11/20/25
-0.19% PERFORMANCE MEASURE TWR 10BDASAE YCURRERETNUCRY N 11/07/25 - 11U/S2D0/25
0.00% -0.90% -1.80% -2.70% -3.60% -4.50% -5.40%
2,598,00B0eginninNg eNtAVAsset Value MTM
2,595,00D0eposits & W6it,3h6d0,r0a00wals
6,301,959.77 3,357.13 0.00 -1,676.26
C-U2M.4U0LA%TIVE RETURN 11/03/25 - 11/20/25
-0.37% -0.11% -0.15Deposits & Withdra2w,6a04ls,000
To1p1/P0e3/r2fo5 rmers 11/05/25
11/07/25Value 11/11C/2T5R (%) 11/13/25 Bottom1P1/e1r7f/o2r5mers
ARKK 251121P000... Consolidated Return
MTM D-e4p.o0s0its%& Withdrawals
FeVeas &luCeommissions CTR (%) Top Performers-1,320.33
-0.65ARKK 251121P020,5089-.7,.03.0.904
45E,6nd3i0ng.0N0AV Change In NAV
-0.13ASTS 2511216P,301202,5,0883.6.,30..0201 10,873.44
Peak-To-Valley Sharpe Ratio Standard Deviation
2,589,6711.51/218/25 - 11/20/25
ValuFeees & CommisCsiTonRs (%)
55,770.E0n0ding NAV 22,800.C0h0ange In NAV
SDnaisptrsihbAoutltlioocnatoiof nReturns
ARKK 251121P000... ASTS 251121P000...
2,583,000 CTR (%) 11/03/25 Bottom11/P0e5r/2fo5rmers 11/07/25
Ana-0l.6y5sis Period: November 3, 2025 - NovemARKbKe2r5121201,P02000.2.. 5
PERFORMANCREGMTI E2A5S1U12R1EP000...
M6,T00D5,51p6.4e5rfo6r6m.68ance comStomcksents
8 Stocks Distribution of Re2t,2u0r8n,6s91.09 24.52
Eq2,u34i6t,9y60.L05ong73/.S33hort straEtTeFsgies MTD
Distribution of5R02e,t1u87rn.5s0 15.69
-163,120.69 Allo26cU.a7SDt1ion
- NeM6t aAcsBOosrthnoeedrstsVtra1a0ltueegies
littl53e..5228opportuniCOtatihsehers
Cumulativ-6e4,1R77e.F3itn0aunciralnInst.2.38
KeOtyheLrSontg atSins(%at)1pi0cshsot
170,236.05 Fina1nc8ia1l,I0ns0t4. .41
Trying to -2,693,220C.a9s5h S2to.0c0ks%
3c,47a59,t0c00AhssetthCelassfalling 6
frustratingShoBrotnds O1t.h0e0r%
while there 3,2752,00C0ash has been6,0l0i5m,51i6t.e45d op66p.6o8 rtunities Einquitcieos mmodities, FX and -2,352,517T.o6ta3l
CU5A0Ms2s,U1e8Lt7A.CT50IlVaEssREAT5CU.C5RO8UNNT:
1218/90,635/92.511- 11/203/.22256 9C,0a0s6h,054.16 100.00
10-02,.00701,712.28 76.92 Total
(%-22) 5,43100.3D7 AY RET8.U37RN
11O/t1h4er/25 - 11/20/25 Tot2a,l346,960.05
-641,117/70.370/25 - 112./3280/25 7-32,.63933,220.95 100.00 Equities
ShWoOrtRSTStRoEcTksUR(%N ) 11/2O0th/e2r5
rates outside of some long USD exposures. Equities 4
Net Asset Value BFiexgeidnnInincgomNAeV 4
527,933.50 Asse3t0Cl8as,8s 36.42
136,7.5006,071.40 9.6513Sh,2o2rt6.44 (%)
PCeoamkm-Tood-VitaCileluesymulative Retur-n19,019.71K01e/1yAs8sS/e2ttC5a3la.t-s1si11s1t/i2c0s/25
- Strong PNL from earlier in the month has been given back across 3,731,000
1-02%5,0to104%.54 9,006,054.16
-2,693,220E-.q29u.50it0ie%s 100.00 Fixed Income
6DO,0et0ph5o,e5sr1it6s.4&5 2DT,3oiv6ti7da,5el8n9d.6s6
With6d6r.6a3,8w726a6,l0s00 26.29
Equitie1s 6,658.04 Ca3sh,200,388.01
-02,.35522,517.603.00 100-.20205,143,409.327.53
SFihxaerdpeInRcaotmioe STtoatnaldard Deviation
Equity Long/Short strategies from adverse individual company 3,724,000
Fe1e05s,0&14C.o54mmissi1o.1n7s0
-2% to 0%-2,6-2913-,,227-12,489098..794405..3277
11/03/25 - 11/20/25 Other BTeogtianlning NAV
developments in the consumer and biotech space. Equity shorts esdoffotrhueisreaicnctohueTanhnPtsidosuriptssf3oiopn,rl7rgitof1omAv7lin,iad0oare0klrdy0estpAtodStoraIttoSaw.l IipasnrstboegevreiladinecevtdrievadebteytBdotrhoubiksereidnargpsccam Iunrtratiaektrseeas,acblntoiuovntegwcBaworrmiortahkpenltertrystae'doPnefoeaasrntsnfyodalnkiaoidncAcdaSnoP,cauXceTlnuxyRtrpsatdrcetayostsoaolCofc,orotwnhnsihm oetliaicdipniahnltfieeeoadddrllm,oianwastsIintoIotnnettrheiasricsantcroivettiepvgeoBurrBatorrakaonenkdretseri'etsssdycc,lsioateennmtdtessnI.tntoTsteh.grTieashncreeteirvdpaeaotterBatraiponsrkafoeolvyrrsisdienhesfadoosrff-nom4torh.a0uelt0iisaro%ebnaiclnpictuytohruwpenioPttshoeurstesfoisonpnlgieloycmAtnaarkCElyenhsttdadtinoantoggaleipNsIrnboAevVNildieAevdVedb3,y7t4ot5h,b0i0er0dapccaurtriaetse,ablountgcwomithpltertaedneeassndanadccao3cuc,7nut21radS37cPa,,yX10tTaoR96fc10ot..hn62et88aiCninofneosdromliidnaatteIindotneriascntoivtegBuraorkaenrtse'esdy,satenmd sI.nTtehriascrteivpe-o1.rB0t0r%ioskfeorrsihnafosrnmoaltiiaMDoebTnpMiolpistiutysr&wpWiotishthedrsreaoswpnalelsyct
are having a great month but it always feels like the squeeze is just tions holding around the corner so it has been difficult to press positions. , accounting,
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in this report is intended to, take into account the
only as a reference and should not be relied upon for particular financial conditions, investment objectives,
the maintenance of your books and records for tax, accounting, financial, or regulatory reporting or for any other purposes. This report
or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on any material within this report, you should consider whethSerOit Uis sNuitable for
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11/21/2025*pDPTe1ho2rif:eso3r0trtMm:fr5oa0aisblnEitSoecuTerAptoiniefocaloelnnyHgsoF/tsAhfolpRrht ealiqtMuuiodrntinrtaosdr ianngaslytrzaetseghieeds.gOe ufurnadpperxopaocshureensa,bthleesminetse,raacntdivpeomsiotinointoinrgingtoomf modaerlkteh1te1/21/2025 12:31:29 EASTllocation
dev1e0lopments, enPohratnfocliinogAnoaulyrsutnderstanding of the current risks and opportunities in the ma1r1k/2e1/t2p02la5 1c2e:3.0:50 EST
Financial InsPt.ortfolioAnalyst
11/21/2025Sh12o:3r1t:29SEOSUTN (%)
20258.11.21 Weekly Market Note
Confidential Not foSrtoDckiss tribuDtioisntribution o2f,0R3e8t,4u5r5n.0s4
2-612/,13019/.2658 PAlalogce2a.96t9i/o8n
-2,082,504.46 Finan1c0ia0l I.n0s0t.
HF Industry Spotlight: HF Industry Update
- The recently released "Billion Dollar Club" ("BDC") H1 2025 report from With Intelligence confirms several key trends and provider rankings in the hedge fund industry.
- Assets managed by $1bn+ hedge funds reached a record $3.6 trillion in H1 2025, accounting for roughly 86% of global hedge fund assets.
- Growth was supported by strong performance across multistrategy, quant, and equity-focused funds, with Bridgewater, Elliott, Millennium, Man Group, and Citadel continuing to maintain leadership.
Top Findings from the H1 2025 Report
- Record Asset Levels: 551 hedge funds now comprise the Billion Dollar Club, running $3.6 trillion in assets. This reflects an industrywide 9% AuM increase in 2024, the fastest rate since 2021.
- Quant & Multi-Strategy Growth: Quant/CTA firms grew assets by 16%, and multi-strategy funds surpassed equity as the largest segment for the first time.
- Regional Insights: New York and London remain the top hub for BDC assets, with North America showing the largest absolute growth and Europe and Asia-Pacific posting the strongest gains by percentage. The number of managers with more than $10bn AuM increased, further concentrating industry assets.
The continued institutionalization of the HF industry marches on
Top 5 HFs ranked by With Intelligence
Industry Outlook and Trends: � Manager interest is surging in event-driven, quant, and long/short
equity strategies. � Investor allocations are expected to rise in 2025, though net flows
were negative in 2024 due to redemptions from certain equity strategies. � Private credit and dedicated private market vehicles are seeing rising demand among $1bn+ managers.
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