April 2025 Chartpack
The month of April 2025 was marked by significant market volatility, driven by uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.
The month began with President Trump announcing broader and more punitive tariffs, leading to a sell-off in global equities and a spike in the VIX volatility index. However, markets recovered much of their losses as the US later softened its trade approach. Developed equities ended the month up 0.9%, with growth stocks outperforming value.
Economic data pointed to signs of moderation, with PMIs declining in the US and Europe, while the UK raised recession concerns. Politically, the threat of replacing the Federal Reserve Chair added to uncertainty and was reflected in a rise in the US sovereign credit default swap spread.
Emerging markets showed relative resilience.
The bond market saw significant yield volatility, with the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 4.6% before settling at 4.2%. Falling European yields positively contributed to global bond returns.
Commodities were mixed, with gold reaching a new high of $3,500 per ounce while oil prices fell sharply.
The start of April was a major “stress event” for markets. Hedge funds protected capital and some profited from the chaos, but those who remained defensive missed out on the subsequent relief rally.
Soft econ data reflected the uncertainty sentiment caused by Trump's policies, but hard data has yet to provide much visibility. Consensus now is leaning towards US economic stability over the medium-term.