September Chartpack
The Masterpiece Monthly
September 2025 Market Analysis & Key Insights
September 2025 Market Outlook
A lack of clear direction in the U.S. economic trajectory is contributing to wide market disconnects. Key themes for September include:
- A Mixed US Economy: On one hand, there is a capital expenditure boom, healthy corporate profits, and relatively low unemployment.
- Persistent Headwinds: On the other, persistent inflation, rising job losses, and an increasingly unstable political backdrop all pose challenges.
- Soft Landing Difficulty: Historically, achieving a soft landing is difficult, as economic data typically begins to slow just when the Fed starts cutting rates, making it too late to prevent a deeper downturn.
- Hidden Risks: The significant collapse of implied volatilities across asset classes obscures much of the underlying economic friction.
- The Macro Opportunity: It is exciting to sit ringside as this US economic debate plays out, which underscores the opportunity set in Global Macro hedge fund strategies.
Performance at a Glance: September 2025 Index Returns
In September, the MSCI World gained 3.25%, large cap stocks outperformed mid and small cap stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index gained 5.61% as AI fervor took another leg higher. Seasonality factors were turned upside down when US stocks registered their best September in 15 years.
| Index | Asset Class | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI World | Equity | 3.25% | 17.84% |
| MSCI Asia Pacific | Equity | 1.75% | 21.00% |
| MSCI Europe | Equity | 2.00% | 28.21% |
| MSCI China | Equity | 9.77% | 41.84% |
| Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index | Fixed Income | 0.65% | 7.91% |
| Bloomberg Commodities Index | Commodities | 1.79% | 5.94% |
| HFRX Global | Hedge Fund | 1.46% | 5.65% |
Deep Dive: Visual Themes from the Month
US Economy on Mixed Footing
The U.S. economy ended Q3 on mixed footing. Revised Q2 GDP was 3.8% annualized, up from an earlier 3.3%, buoyed by consumer spending growth of 2.5%.
Fed Cuts Rates as Labor Market Softens
Labor market data softened: nonfarm payrolls gained only 22,000 in August, and unemployment rose to 4.3%, leading the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025.
UK Faces Slowing Output & Fiscal Strain
UK data highlighted slowing output and persistent fiscal strain. Public borrowing in September hit £20.2 billion, the highest for that month in five years, reflecting surging interest expenses.
Eurozone Activity Hits One-Year High
Eurozone activity reached its strongest pace in over a year, though momentum varied widely. The composite PMI rose to 51.2, signaling modest expansion, with Germany surprising to the upside at 52.4.
China's Economy Slows in Q3
China’s economy slowed in Q3, with GDP growth at 4.8% year-over-year, the weakest pace in a year. The property sector remained in deep contraction, weighing on domestic demand.
Gold Hits All-Time Highs
Commodities were higher, driven by gold’s 10% monthly return to hit all-time highs due to continued demand from individuals and institutions globally. YTD gold is up almost 50%.
Download the Full September 2025 Chartpack
Get the complete PDF with all charts, data, and in-depth analysis.
Download NowHave Questions or Want to Learn More?
Our team is ready to provide deeper insights and discuss how our strategies can fit your portfolio.
Contact UsDisclaimer
This material has been prepared and distributed by MASTERPIECE ADVISORS for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. You should consult with your own independent legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors before taking any action on the basis of this information. This material should not be construed as an endorsement, advice or recommendation by MASTERPIECE ADVISORS about investing in hedge funds generally or in any particular hedge fund strategy. It is for your general information only and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Investments in hedge funds are speculative, involve a high degree of risk, and are illiquid. Hedge funds may be highly leveraged and their performance can be volatile. You could lose all or a substantial amount of any investment you make in a hedge fund. You are solely responsible for performing such due diligence as you may deem appropriate, including consulting your own legal, tax and investment advisors, and any information provided by MASTERPIECE ADVISORS shall not form the primary basis of any investment decision you may make. The information provided in the material is based upon sources believed to have been reliable by MASTERPIECE ADVISORS only as of the date indicated, but MASTERPIECE ADVISORS has not taken any steps to verify the accuracy or completeness of the information. Neither MASTERPIECE ADVISORS nor any of its officers, employees, agents, affiliates or advisers make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the material or are under any obligation, express or implied, to update the information to correct any inaccuracies it may contain or to reflect any changes that may occur in the future. MASTERPIECE ADVISORS has or may develop a business or client relationship with you, which may have an investment advisory or discretionary aspect to it ("Advisory Relationship"). Any information or material accompanying this disclaimer is not being, and shall not be deemed under any circumstances to be, provided to you as part of such Advisory Relationship. In addition, unless expressly agreed to the contrary in writing, MASTERPIECE ADVISORS shall be under no obligation as a result of such Advisory Relationship to provide you with any advice or recommendations in connection with the accompanying material or any further information or material relating to any particular fund or manager referenced therein. This material is confidential and may not be disclosed to any person other than the intended recipient without the express written approval of MASTERPIECE ADVISORS. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, or duplicated in any form, by any means or (ii) redistributed, without MASTERPIECE ADVISORS' prior written consent.