Market Note
Is it different this time?
March 20th, 2026
Chart Source(s): Bloomberg Finance LP
Deutsche Bank analysts put together some interesting analysis this week on war’s impact on the S&P 500. Good news, according to their analysis of 30 past war events, the S&P 500 bottoms T+15 days post war onset at just around the -4% level where we stand today.
While historical statistics can be comforting, every situation is different and clearly there are many open-ended issues at play here before the all clear flag is waived. In the meantime, hedge fund PMs are opting on de-risking as the best path forward as many typical risk-off hedges (bonds, precious metals, equity puts) are proving elusive.
Risk continues to trade heavy with pockets of intermittent bursts of optimism. Central banks were unanimously on hold with a hawkish bent this week.
Global Markets & Economic Data
- US: February pre-war PPI was hotter than forecast rising 0.7% versus 0.3% expected. The Fed held rates unchanged, and Powell’s speech was considered hawkish. US housing activity remains subdued.
- Switzerland/UK/EU: Switzerland’s trade surplus widened, driven by a fall in imports. Watch exports are on a 5-month uptrend. The SNB, BoE & ECB held rates unchanged. The UK Unemployment Rate is at multi-year highs of 5.2%. Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment index crashed due to a war-related spike in energy prices.
- China/Japan: Chinese Industrial Production surged 6.3% y/y. Chinese YTD FDI remains negative y/y, but high-tech industries are seeing a 20.4% y/y surge. The BoJ held rates unchanged.
Index Returns Summary
| Asset Class | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI World | -4.88% | -1.84% |
| MSCI Asia Pacific | -8.73% | 6.08% |
| MSCI Europe | -8.60% | -0.70% |
| MSCI China | -2.59% | 2.07% |
| Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index | -2.96% | -0.89% |
| Bloomberg Commodities Index | 10.90% | 21.91% |
| HFRX Global | -2.10% | 0.35% |
| HFRX Macro/CTA | -3.01% | 2.41% |
| HFRX Equity Hedge | -3.12% | -0.02% |
*Index data as of March 13, 2026
Market Spotlight: Europe in the crosshairs
The case for a continued uptrend in European growth hinges upon a stable energy supply backdrop. Sadly, Europe finds itself in the middle of the Iranian conflict despite never agreeing to take part.
Chart Source(s): tradingeconomics.com | Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)
Market Spotlight: Corporate catalysts in Japan
Public activist campaigns in Japan reportedly rose nearly 90% from 2024 to 2025, making Japan the second most active market globally after the U.S.
Chart Source(s): JP Morgan | FactSet
Have Questions or Want to Learn More?
Our team is ready to provide further insights into our strategies and the current market landscape. Reach out to us today.
Contact UsDisclaimer: This material has been prepared by MASTERPIECE ADVISORS for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investments in hedge funds are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. This material is confidential and may not be disclosed without the express written approval of MASTERPIECE ADVISORS.