Market Note
War, Peace and NVDA
Ongoing Middle East peace negotiations, NVDA earnings, SPCX IPO anticipation, sticky rates, volatile oil and seasonality conspired this week to create a de-risking environment where daily price movements of individual securities became harder to forecast.
Sell in May
As Q1 earnings season starts trailing off, the liquidity drain of seasonality de-risking into the summer is contributing to the near-term headwinds.
We have heard anecdotal stories of the markets starting to behave a bit erratically over the past several trading sessions.
Early monthly gains are starting to dissipate across fundamental strategies while quant strategies are having a mixed experience.
Global Markets & Economic Data
- US: US Housing data (NAHB Housing Market Index) ticked slightly higher in May versus April as Pending Home Sales were higher than expected, but 30-year mortgage rates just moved back above 6.5%.
- Switzerland/UK/Europe: Swiss Industrial Production fell in Q1 following a revised downward Q4 ’25 print. UK Unemployment hit 5% and inflation is running at 2.8%. German Consumer Confidence ticked up versus the previous reading, but remains near the lowest level since mid-2023.
- China/Japan: Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data were both far below forecast. Japan’s Q1 GDP growth is running at a 0.5% Q/Q rate.
Index Returns Summary
| Asset Class | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI World | 1.74% | 7.57% |
| MSCI Asia Pacific | 1.47% | 11.66% |
| MSCI Europe | -1.48% | 2.91% |
| Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index | 0.75% | 0.92% |
| Bloomberg Commodities Index | 0.28% | 28.47% |
| HFRX Global | 0.86% | 3.25% |
| HFRX Macro/CTA | 1.62% | 6.05% |
| HFRX Equity Hedge | 1.18% | 5.05% |
*Index data as of May 15, 2026
Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by MASTERPIECE ADVISORS for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investments in hedge funds are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. This material is confidential and may not be disclosed without the express written approval of MASTERPIECE ADVISORS.