November Chartpack
The Masterpiece Monthly
November 2025 Market Analysis & Key Insights
November 2025 Market Outlook
- Markets were choppy during November, but ultimately risk assets registered another positive month fueled by a rally at the end of the month.
- Q3 corporate earnings season was positive as 81% of S&P 500 companies beat consensus.
- Equity sector rotations featured a reversal for leading momentum oriented AI large cap themes resulting in technology appearing as the worst performing sector.
- Solid financials and IT Q3 earnings supported a rally in European equities.
- Chinese equities remained in consolidation mode, but sentiment was bolstered by an improved 2026 growth outlook, especially if trade uncertainty continues to ease.
- Lack of US economic data visibility left bonds in a holding pattern as investors continued to digest hawkish Powell comments at the October Fed meeting.
- The US dollar remained well-bid during the month in reaction to a less clear Fed cutting path.
- In commodities, strength in precious metals offset softness in industrial metals and energy.
Performance at a Glance: November 2025 Index Returns
| Index | Asset Class | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI World | Equity | 0.31% | 20.59% |
| MSCI Asia Pacific | Equity | -0.98% | 22.29% |
| MSCI Europe | Equity | 1.49% | 31.11% |
| MSCI China | Equity | -2.50% | 33.03% |
| Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index | Fixed Income | 0.23% | 7.89% |
| Bloomberg Commodities Index | Commodities | 2.90% | 11.79% |
| HFRX Global | Hedge Fund | 0.14% | 6.52% |
| HFRX Macro/CTA | Hedge Fund | 0.19% | 4.23% |
| HFRX Equity Hedge | Hedge Fund | 0.04% | 9.05% |
Deep Dive: Visual Themes from the Month
Global Economic Data Wrap-Up
US economic data releases were delayed for most of the month due to the ongoing government shutdown. Consumer confidence declined in November despite record Thanksgiving travel and strong early holiday shopping projections.
Handicapping the Fed
Uncertainty around the December Fed cut dampened risk taking. The probability of a cut sharply declined to 30-40% mid-month, but optimism roared back by month-end as investors digested mixed jobs data.
Equity Long/Short Performance
It was a drama for much of the month with strategies trending negative until a Thanksgiving rally saved the P&L. Regionally, US strategies outperformed European and Asian ones.
Current CTA Positioning
Systematic sellers contributed to mid-month pressure. CTAs remain long global equities, US/Euro bonds, and gold, while short Japanese bonds and oil. November was largely a risk-reducing month.
The Rise of SMAs
Separately Managed Account (SMA) assets rose 27% y/y in 2024. Investors are increasingly favoring the capital efficiency and transparency of SMAs, while managers grapple with the resulting concentration risk.
HF Industry Data Points
$1bn+ hedge funds now manage a record $3.6 trillion, roughly 86% of global HF assets. For the first time, multi-strategy funds have surpassed equity as the largest segment of the Billion Dollar Club.
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