The lack of visibility on Fed policy, exacerbated by a lack of official data in the wake of the government shutdown, is curtailing the opportunity set for Macro US FX/Rates trading. Additionally, risk sentiment generally has lacked much direction, because of the cloudy rate outlook. • The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025 sharply declined over recent weeks, falling from nearly 100% a month ago to approximately 30-40% as of yesterday, but now this morning Fed officials are taking on a more dovish tone, bringing the expectations back to ~75% for a cut.

YTD, Korea has been one of the hottest markets globally with notable outperformance of US indices in recent months.

A potent combination of domestic and pan-Asia retail activity with global institutional investor inflows spurred on the rally, with the index up over 60% YTD.

This year the S&P 500 is on a bit of a hybrid/WFH schedule rallying at the start of the week then closing out Thursday and Friday with more sellers than buyers.

The trend could be in place due to the heightened geopolitical and domestic political uncertainty inspiring investors to de-risk into the weekend.

Perma bear journalist Bond Vigilantes.com put together a spooky chartpack. Among the scariest of charts was one showing a slowdown in freight shipments. The Cass Freight Index is approaching GFC and covid low levels. Restrictive monetary policy and a weaking consumer has fueled the drop in activity since 2021, and the impact of tariffs have yet to be fully reflected in the data.

In September, the MSCI World gained 3.25%, large cap stocks outperformed mid and small cap stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index gained 5.61% as AI fervor took another leg higher. Seasonality factors were turned upside down when US stocks registered their best September in 15 years.

The market finally took a breather this week, pulling back slightly from all-time highs as the US government shutdown continues with no end in sight. While the shutdown has not yet caused a major risk-off event, the lack of progress is starting to weigh on sentiment. Beneath the surface, the semiconductor space continues its relentless rally, punishing short-sellers and highlighting the market's speculative fervor.

As market participants contemplate where we are in the cycle, reviewing market price action in the late 1990s is instructive. After the Fed bailed out LTCM in 1998, a strong, orderly rally followed. Then, from October 1999 to March 2000, the Nasdaq doubled in a ferocious speculative rally.

During the early fall period when seasonality is supposed to correct many of the summer technical imbalances, we are instead seeing vol-crushing speculation run rampant.

The US dollar has been trading in a choppy range over the past few weeks, frustrating both bulls and bears. After the recent Fed rate cut, the market is struggling to find a clear direction, leading to low-volume, counter-trend reversals.

Global markets posted strong performance in August 2025, driven by resilient economic data and evolving central bank signals. Developed market equities were led by Japan, while the S&P 500 saw strength in Materials and mega-cap tech companies.