Market Note
The fog of war pervades global asset prices and investor sentiment. Bond prices are falling alongside stocks, currently offering no diversification or defensive flight-to-quality benefits.
The spike in oil prices is creating inflationary headwinds that are driving down the price of global bonds. With a flight to quality move not unfolding, balanced stock and bond portfolios are suffering in tandem.
Market Note
Controlled chaos has ensued in recent days as investors slowly readjust their expectations regarding the timing for when Middle East military activity might de-escalate.
Thus far investors have been quite resilient in the face of an uptick in military activity in the Middle East and an ensuing rise in oil.
Selling is underway on Friday as investors are beginning to understand the military operations in the region could take time to quiet down alongside an unsteady upswing in the price of oil.
Market Note
80% of the top 70 equity markets globally are up at least 20% off their 52-week low (with +20% being a common benchmark/trigger for “bull market“). The last twelve months have featured growing broadening in global equity markets versus previous years when leadership was concentrated in the US.
Market Note
January FOMC minutes released earlier this week signaled mixed viewpoints within the Fed as some members advocate for further rate cuts while others seek to stay on hold or even raise rates if inflation data heats up.
The mixed viewpoints within the Fed are emblematic of the current market environment where investors can interpret developments from positive or negative perspectives.
Market Note
We are observing risk-taking gridlock across markets driven by technical and fundamental rotations that are triggering de-grossing, which amplifies the daily price movements.
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Market Note
As of Friday morning in the pre-market, the S&P 500 is 2% off of its "all-time-highs" reached February 2nd, but it feels a lot worse out there.
Crypto's utility function and market structure are called into question as the price plummets. Crypto treasury companies are entering dangerous territory pressuring their balance sheets, which could pressure prices even lower.
Market Note
Corporate earnings, US presidential decrees, central banks and speculative flows are causing market prices to trend, extend and reverse into month-end.
Market Note
The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq practically every trading day of 2026. The outperformance is fueled by rampant US retail flows and fundamentally driven cyclical rotations as the market "broadens".
Many hedge funds are opportunistic and can sidestep this violent turn of events at a factor/sector/market cap/style level. However, last year's winners are no longer at the top of the charts and that is taking a toll on quant strategies in particular.
Market Note
Sometimes equities climb a wall of worry and sometimes they just vault over all concerns due ample liquidity and a robust economic setup. With global headline inflation relatively subdued and ex-US equity valuations having substantial room for catch-up, its risk-on.
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